Uncertainty

1. Definition

Uncertainty is the effect of not knowing for sure how, for example, future events, behaviors, or environments will affect an organization’s ability to achieve its objectives.

In Jigsaw, uncertainty is at the core of sexual abuse risk management. Unlike traditional safeguarding approaches that focus narrowly on preventing abuse with sets of rules-based controls, Jigsaw applies Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) within a living system:

• Uncertainty can generate threats (negative effects) or opportunities (positive effects).
• Managing uncertainty means both reducing the likelihood of harm and creating conditions that improve safety, trust, resilience, and organizational performance.
• Only a living system can manage uncertainty effectively: by adapting, learning, and improving over time while also providing the solid foundation people need when incidents happen, leadership changes, or scrutiny is high.

2. Purpose of Managing Uncertainty

• Clarity: Reframes risk as uncertainty around achieving objectives (Swans, mission, values).
• Balance: Ensures both threats and opportunities are considered in every decision.
• Adaptation: Recognizes that uncertainty shifts with time, environment, and stakeholders — requiring a system that adapts.
• Innovation: Naming uncertainty is the most reliable route to prevention innovation.
• Return on Investment: The fullest value from investment in SAM risk management comes from using uncertainty as a driver of stronger trust, culture, resilience, and performance.
• Defensibility: Demonstrates to boards, regulators, and stakeholders that the organization is acting systematically, not relying on guesswork.
• Integration: Positions SAM risk management as a whole-organization responsibility, embedded in daily decisions.

3. Practical Areas of Uncertainty

Organizations and staff face uncertainty every day. Common categories include:

A. People & Behavior

• Will staff, volunteers, and contractors consistently follow requirements?
• Will they act on early signs of grooming?
• How vulnerable are children and adults at different stages?
• How might offenders adapt to new controls?

B. Supervision & Oversight

• Will staffing always meet supervision ratios?
• Will supervisors detect boundary crossings?
• Will staff hesitate or delay reporting?

C. Environment & Context

• Do spaces (physical or digital) create hidden opportunities?
• Are cultural norms supportive of reporting?
• How do legal, regulatory, or reputational changes alter expectations?

D. System Reliability

• Will checks detect relevant risks?
• Will training transfer into practice?
• Will records be complete and accessible when needed?
• Will leadership prioritize safety under competing pressures?

E. Ambiguity

• How do we interpret behaviors that may or may not indicate grooming?
• Are emerging risks (digital, AI, social platforms) fully understood?
• Do our values and stakeholder expectations still align with our controls?

4. What Makes Uncertainty Management Fit-for-Purpose

5. Common Strengths and Gaps

Strengths

• Naming uncertainty prevents complacency.
• Considering both threats and opportunities leads to stronger decisions.
• Managing uncertainty builds resilience, not just compliance.

Gaps

• Narrow focus on “prevention” misses opportunities for improvement.
• Fear of ambiguity discourages staff from raising concerns.
• Uncertainty treated as someone else’s responsibility.
• Lack of documentation undermines defensibility and learning.

6. Signals of Healthy Uncertainty Management

• SIAs and reviews record both positives and negatives.
• Monitoring and reviews ask: “What has changed that adds uncertainty?”
• Staff raise uncertainty without fear of blame.
• Near misses are logged and learned from.
• Leaders acknowledge uncertainty openly.
• Adaptations can be traced back to identified uncertainties.

7. Opportunities for Improvement

• Train teams to ask “what are we uncertain about?” before deciding.
• Use facilitation in reviews to explore uncertainties openly.
• Build uncertainty prompts into all controls (intake, training, security, events).
• Record uncertainty explicitly in decision logs, including trade-offs.
• Use uncertainty mapping in incident reviews to identify what was missed and how to adapt.

8. How Uncertainty is Tracked in Jigsaw

• Monitoring, reviewing, and reporting explicitly include uncertainty.
• Safety Impact Assessments (SIAs): Assess risks and opportunities.
• Reviews: Revisit whether underlying uncertainties have shifted.
• Reporting: Present uncertainties to boards, not just incidents.
• Learning cycles: Compare expected uncertainties with actual outcomes.

Bottom Line

Uncertainty is the central concept in Jigsaw’s approach to sexual abuse risk management. It is the most honest description of what organizations face — and the most powerful driver of prevention innovation.

By acknowledging uncertainty, organizations avoid drift, open the way to innovation, and learn continuously. By embracing both threats and opportunities, they gain the greatest return on their investment in risk management: stronger protection, deeper trust, resilient systems, and better performance.

Ignoring uncertainty leads to fragility. Managing it through a living, ERM-based system supported by facilitation builds confidence, accountability, and safety.